5/11/2010

Η αισιόδοξη πλευρά της χρεοκοπίας

28/04/2010


του Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη

Για μέρες τώρα βαραίνουμε τις ψυχές μας με μια μόνιμη αγωνία: Θα χρεοκοπήσει το κράτος μας; Ε, λοιπόν, ήρθε η ώρα να αγκαλιάσουμε αυτό που φοβόμαστε. Αν οι φίλοι μας οι Γερμανοί δεν έχουν πρόβλημα να χρεοκοπήσουμε, καιρός είναι να το κάνουμε. Χωρίς δεύτερη κουβέντα. Όχι ως διαπραγματευτική μπλόφα και ούτε μόνο γιατί το χειρότερο που μπορεί να μας συμβεί είναι να χρεοκοπήσουμε σε ένα χρόνο (βλ. το προηγούμενο άρθρο μου Το Πρώτο Τάνγκο στην Ευρωζώνη) αλλά επειδή ήρθε η ώρα να στρέψουμε το βλέμμα στην αισιόδοξη πλευρά της χρεοκοπίας.

Υπάρχει τέτοια πλευρά; Και βέβαια υπάρχει. Σε σχέση με χώρες όπως η γνωστή τρόικα Πορτογαλία, Ισπανία και Ιρλανδία, αλλά και η Βρετανία και το Βέλγιο, το σύνολο του χρέους μας (δημοσίου και ιδιωτικού) είναι το μικρότερο. Πως αυτό; Επειδή οι έλληνες, ως άτομα αλλά και ως ιδιωτικός τομέας, χρωστάμε πολύ λιγότερα εκείνων. Ακόμα και οι αντιπαθέστατες τράπεζές μας έχουν ένα μεγάλο συγκριτικό πλεονέκτημα: Πάνω από 150 δις πραγματικών καταθέσεων! Μιλάμε για άνω του μισού ΑΕΠ σε καταθέσεις, κάτι για το οποίο οι περισσότεροι εταίροι μας θα σκότωναν να το έχουν, που λέει ο λόγος. Αν μάλιστα προσθέσετε και όλα τα χρήματα ελλήνων που βρίσκονται στο εξωτερικό, θα δείτε ότι οι έλληνες δεν είμαστε και τόσο φτωχοί κατά μέσον όρο, κι ας έχουμε το μεγαλύτερο ποσοστό φτώχειας στην Ευρώπη (με εξαίρεση την Λεττονία).

Ως πολίτες είμαστε ελάχιστα χρεωμένοι σε σχέση με πολλούς από τους επικριτές μας στις Λόνδρες, στα Παρίσια και στις Νέες Υόρκες. Αυτό βέβαια δεν σημαίνει ότι είμαστε λευκές περιστερές. Για δεκαετίες φορτώναμε το δημόσιο με τόσο μεγάλο χρέος που το βλέπουμε πλέον να βουλιάζει μπροστά στα μάτια μας. Εδώ όμως που φτάσαμε, δεν μπορούμε να κάνουμε τίποτα. Ακόμα και να αποφασίσουμε σύσσωμοι (ΣΕΒ και ΓΣΕΕ, γιάπηδες και στελέχη του ΠΑΜΕ, αστοί των βορείων προαστίων και αναρχικοί της Πλατείας Εξαρχείων) να δώσουμε ό,τι έχουμε και δεν έχουμε στο κράτος, δεν αρκεί. Αν μάλιστα το παρακάνουμε στην αλληλεγγύη προς το δημόσιο, η 'γενναιοδωρία' μας αυτή θα στεγνώσει την κυκλική ροή του πλούτου από το οποίο εξαρτάται το δημόσιο για τα έσοδά του το 2011, το 2012 κ.ο.κ.

Ποια είναι λοιπόν τα χαρμόσυνα νέα; Ότι μια πτώχευση θα αποδειχθεί σχετικά ανώδυνη. Ο λόγος διττός: Πρώτον, δεν είμαστε κατά μέσον όρο ούτε οι φτωχότεροι ούτε οι πιο υπερχρεωμένοι. Δεύτερον, όσον αφορά τα χρέη του δημοσίου, αυτά βαραίνουν εμάς, ως άτομα, πολύ λιγότερο από όσο βαραίνουν τους ξένους.
Κάντε την σύγκριση με την Ιαπωνία, το χρέος της οποίας ανήκει σε Ιάπωνες σε ποσοστό 95%. Αν το Ιαπωνικό κράτος αναγκαστεί στην πτώχευση, η καταστροφή της χώρας θα είναι ολική. Κάτι τέτοιο δεν ισχύει για εμάς, καθώς μας ανήκει (δηλαδή στις δικές μας τράπεζες) μόνο το 25% του δημόσιου χρέους μας. Έτσι λοιπόν, δεδομένου ότι η πτώχευση του δημοσίου διαγράφεται ως αναπόφευκτη (εκτός αν πανικοβληθούν οι εταίροι μας αρκετά και το συνδράμουν για χρόνια πολλά, οπότε έχει καλώς), το κόστος της στάσης πληρωμών δεν θα το υποστούμε μόνοι μας.

Μα αν το δημόσιο κηρύξει στάση πληρωμών, τι θα γίνει την επόμενη μέρα; Πως θα ξανα-δανειστεί; Πράγματι, το κράτος θα στριμωχθεί. Για κάμποσο καιρό το δημόσιο θα πρέπει απλώς να ξοδεύει όσα μαζεύει από φόρους. Και γιατί είναι κακό αυτό; Να μάθει επί τέλους, αφού θα έχει ανακουφιστεί από το νταλκά των τοκοχρεολυσίων, να ζει με αυτά που εισπράττει. Π.χ. να καταγγείλει όλες τις εξοπλιστικές συμβάσεις, να συμπιέσει τους ανώτερους μισθούς (τον δικό μου συμπεριλαμβανομένου) τόσο που να καλύπτει τις δαπάνες του από τους φόρους που εισπράττει κλπ.

Οι τράπεζές μας; Θα υποφέρουν, είναι αλήθεια - δεδομένου ότι ακόμα και το 25% του δημόσιου χρέους που διαθέτουν θα παγώσει. Ναι, αλλά μην ξεχνάμε ότι το έχουν ήδη διαθέσει στην ΕΚΤ ως ενέχυρο για ζεστό χρήμα που έχουν ήδη πάρει. Και ότι έχουν πρόσβαση στις τεράστιες, κατά κεφαλήν, αποταμιεύσεις μας. Για να μην προσθέσω ότι απολαμβάνουν εγκληματικά υψηλά ποσοστά κέρδους τόσα χρόνια. Όπως το κράτος μας, έτσι κι αυτές να μάθουν να ζουν λιτά και με σύνεση όπως κάνουν χρόνια τώρα οι εργαζόμενοι των 700 ευρώ.

Επί πλέον, ο αποκλεισμός του κράτους μας από τις χρηματαγορές δεν θα διαρκέσει πολύ. Αν κηρύξει στάση πληρωμών, και ισοσκελίσει τον προϋπολογισμό του, δεν θα περάσει πολύ καιρός που παλιοί δανειστές θα αποδεχθούν νέους όρους αποπληρωμής ενός ποσοστού των περασμένων δανεικών και νέοι υποψήφιοι δανειστές (μπορεί και οι ίδιοι με τους παλιούς) θα σχηματίσουν ουρά έξω από το Υπουργείο Οικονομίας να το δανείσουν! Βλέπετε, το χρέος μας θα έχει μειωθεί τόσο που θα αποτελούμε εξαιρετική επένδυση. Έτσι είναι το κεφάλαιο - όταν οσφραίνεται ένα επικερδές deal δεν σέβεται ούτε τον εαυτό του.

Σε τελική ανάλυση, είναι λάθος μας να φοβόμαστε τόσο πολύ την στάση πληρωμών του ελληνικού δημοσίου. Άλλοι πρέπει να φοβούνται μια τέτοια εξέλιξη περισσότερο από εμάς:

• η κυβέρνηση της κας Μέρκελ η οποία θα πρέπει να διασώσει τις Γερμανικές τράπεζες που θα κλονιστούν από μια δική μας στάση πληρωμών

• η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή που θα πρέπει να δει τι θα κάνει με μία χώρα-μέλος την οποία δεν μπορεί να αποβάλει από την ΕΕ αλλά η οποία τελεί υπό πτώχευση

• οι κυβερνήσεις όλων των άλλων χωρών (πλην ίσως της Ολλανδίας και της Αυστρίας) που θα τρέμουν για το ποιος θα είναι ο επόμενος στόχος των αγορών (των οποίων η όρεξη θα έχει ανοίξει από την 'επιτυχημένη' επίθεση στο χρέος της Ελλάδας)

• οι κυβερνήσεις των ΗΠΑ και της Βρετανίας (χωρών με συνολικό χρέος πάνω από 400%)

• όλοι όσοι έχουν επενδύσει στο ευρώ, είτε σε περιουσιακά στοιχεία είτε ως μέσο συναλλαγής.

Στάση πληρωμών λοιπόν!
Τώρα!
Με χαμόγελο και αισιοδοξία!

(Και ξέρετε ποιο είναι το ωραίο; Ότι αν πειθόμασταν να απελευθερωθούμε από τον φόβο της πτώχευσης, οι φίλοι μας οι Γερμανοί θα έσπευδαν την ίδια στιγμή να την αποσοβήσουν...)


*Ο Γιάνης Βαρουφάκης διδάσκει οικονομική θεωρία και πολιτική οικονομία στο Τμήμα Οικονομικών Επιστημών του Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών

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